Fishy thoughts.

After learning that the Magic community here in Madrid was pretty heavy on the Constructed -- there are about three different stores with Constructed tournaments every Wednesday - Friday, and there are no limited FNMs -- I had some of my cards shipped to me so I could participate. However, it would have been too expensive to send them all, so I had to give an enumerated list, and as it usually goes with these things cards were forgotten/missed on both sides.

Not only is it the deck I was closest to having a complete copy of, but Merfolk appeal to me in a number of ways. It's essentially a Blue aggro-control deck, the concept of which I've always liked but has rarely been viable. As such, I've cobbled together this list from the cards I have here in Spain:

4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Merrow Reejery
4 Stonybrook Banneret
3 Sygg, River Guide
2 Sower of Temptation
2 Venser, Shaper Savant

2 Ancestral Vision
4 Sage's Dousing
4 Cryptic Command

4 Wanderwine Hub
3 Adarkar Wastes
1 Mystic Gate
3 Mutavault
12 Island

SB:
4 Burrenton Forge-Tender
4 Wispmare
3 Reveillark
3 Teferi's Moat
1 Oona, Queen of the Fae

This deck is far from ideal; I'm missing a Mutavault, I'm not happy with the Vensers, and the sideboard is trash -- I'd like to have Razormane Masticore but I simply don't have access to them, so Teferi's Moat is making the substitution for now. The Wispmares aren't awful, but I'd rather have a card that helps against a bad matchup, like Flashfreeze. Note that I don't think Sunlance is very good at all and I'm not upset about the lack of them. The Oona is there because I only have three Reveillark here, and it serves a somewhat-similar role.

Despite the compromises made in this decklist, it's still pretty much what is expected of a Standard Merfolk deck.

What I'm more interested in theorizing about is Block Merfolk post-Eventide.

Merfolk isn't exactly a star player in the current Block format (mostly because of the loss of Lord of Atlantis), but it has made some Top8s, and even won a few PTQs. From analysis of the decklists available on MTG.com, the decks seem pretty similar to the Standard decks in basic structure, having the core Merfolk package augmented by some powerful non-Merfolk creatures (usually Wizards) and a suite of countermagic/utility/draw spells.

So, to start off:

Core Merfolk

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Stonybrook Banneret
4 Merrow Reejery
2 Sygg, River Guide

This is pretty basic, but essential. Note that there is little argument for the inclusion of less than four Bannerets in the Block version of this deck, since the replacements for cards like Lord of Atlantis have colorless mana in their costs and they have inherent Islandwalk, excellent versus the monstrous force that is Block Faeries.

Everyone seems to be of the belief that Sygg is at most a 2-of, perhaps originating with Jan Ruess' Hollywood Top8 list, but Sygg seems to be a totally absurd card in this format, with inherent Islandwalk and the ability to protect from all the somewhat-clunky individual removal spells in the format right now. If there is any room at all when the deck has been crafted, this is the first card I'd add.

Core Spells

4 Cryptic Command
4 Sage's Dousing

These are pretty much unalterable. Some run less than the max of each -- again, probably due to Jan Ruess -- but it seems ridiculous not to. Cryptic Command is far too powerful not to max out on and including the full boat of Bannerets makes the set of Dousings even more appealing.

Lands
4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Mutavault
3 Mystic Gate
13 Island

This is an arguable manabase, but it seems like a decent starting point. Hub is obviously a 4-of, as is Mutavault (especially with the lack of a UU two-drop), and the minor White requirements seem to allow playing less Mystic Gates to avoid the all-colorless-land draw. 24 land is more than in the Standard version, but the deck is going to end up being a little higher-up on the curve and missing land drops with the deck seems utterly disastrous.

26 spells and 24 lands leaves 10 empty slots to fill. Before deciding how to split it among creatures and other spells, let's set out the options.

Creatures

Wake Thrasher
Cold-Eyed Selkie
Wistful Selkie
Selkie Hedge-Mage
Grimoire Thief
Puresight Merrow
Thistledown Liege
Mirror Entity
Sower of Temptation
Leech Bonder
Oona, Queen of the Fae
Sygg, River Cuttthroat
Surgespanner

(Note: I like to consider a lot of different options and eliminate them later)

The first issue to resolve is the approach to these last ten slots -- should we theoretically be looking to replace the cards lost from the Standard version, or taking the empirically most powerful cards, or look deeply into synergy?

Merfolk is a linear, synergystic deck, so power and synergy have to both be weighed. The harder issue is replacement vs. reevaluation. As much as Faeries is a juggernaut in both formats, the rest of the format differs significantly, and as such there is a strong argument to look beyond replacement. Additionally, the new Eventide cards can perhaps allow the deck to take on a slightly different role.

Under either philosophy it's easy to cut Wistful Selkie, Puresight Merrow, Selkie Hedge-Mage and Leech Bonder, as they're all either underwhelming or competing for already-crowded curve slots.

The two most exciting cards in the list are Sower and Wake Thrasher. Both enhance the deck's offensive potential and are fit into parts of the decks' linear theme (a Wizard and a Merfolk). Wake Thrasher in particular is one of the best reasons to attempt to create a viable Merfolk build for Block, as it's quite absurd with countermagic and instants in general. Sower is a Standard mainstay and an incredibly powerful card, whether to clear a blocker for a Merfolk swarm or as a strong move after they've spent some removal on the lesser Fish and played out their Oona/Cloudthresher/Reveillark/etc to attempt to win the game.

Unfortunately both these cards are quite expensive, although both are helped by the Banneret (thus the auto-inclusion of four of them). At least at first, including the full boat of the unknown quantity seems advisable, if only to figure out how it functions in the scope of the deck.

4 Wake Thrasher
3 Sower of Temptation

This leaves three slots open for another non-creature spell.

Cold-Eyed Selkie seems incredibly strong against Faeries, were it not for the presence of Peppersmoke in most lists. Additionally, the loss of Lord of Atlantis makes it less likely that it'll charge across as a 2/2 or 3/3 when the opponent doesn't have Islands, so it seems like a sideboard inclusion at best. Note that Wake Thrasher also suffers from this severe weakness to Peppersmoke, but its power level and general strength (as opposed to strength proportional to the presence of Islands) seem like more than enough to justify its inclusion in the maindeck.

The other cards are just not in the same league as these three. Oona is interesting for both legend-ruling (Seal of Oona) and getting that monster out on turn 5 or 4 with Bannerets, but ultimately doesn't really fit into the deck at the moment. One might not be a poor inclusion and could provide some diversity of threats and a surprise for opponents only expecting tiny fish.

Grimoire Thief is something I'd like to try, as it does offer a complete replacement cost- and stats- wise for Lord of Atlantis, although it obviously has a vastly different effect. However, it seems like it could be quite strong versus a lot of decks, especially the ones with a small number of win conditions that could potentially get excised even if the Thief never counters anything.

Thistledown Liege is another interesting possibility, filling in for the other side of Lord of Atlantis, but its cost and lack of a relevant creature type seems to make it less exciting than the rest of the possibilities.

Spells

Ponder
Negate
Broken Ambitions
Mirrorweave
Oblivion Ring

As for spells, the presence of 8 counterspells seems to necessitate the presence of a non-counterspell for the last three cards in the deck (possibly two, if another Sygg is added). This removes Negate and Broken Ambitions, perhaps relegating them to the sideboard in matchups where more (or cheaper) counterspells might be desired.

Oblivion Ring is kind of clunky, inhabiting the dreaded 3-slot that seems so clogged in Block Merfolk, and requires tapping out in your mainphase, which seems somewhat contrary to the deck's overall plan

So it comes down to Mirrorweave v. Ponder.

Mirrorweave is a devastating effect, but the truth of the metagame is that there's already a deck much better suited to using and abusing the 'Weave. It also requires making a move when you could be representing Cryptic or Dousing.

Ponder is a card I have never been a fan of, but if it has any place, it is in this type of deck. It gives more action on the first turn beyond the Cursecatchers. More importantly, Merfolk is a deck very much relying on a set of explosive early turns and certain sequences of plays. As such, Ponder's value at settin gup the next few draws over those crucial turns (or, perhaps, offering an opportunity to get better draws than the ones currently available) seems at a premium in this deck.

3 Ponder

I have decided not to add the third Sygg yet, to be able to better verify Ponder's role in the deck and see if it should be changed for something more powerful or significant.

Here's the final decklist from this analysis:

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Stonybrook Banneret
4 Merrow Reejery
4 Wake Thrasher
3 Sower of Temptation
2 Sygg, River Guide

4 Sage's Dousing
4 Cryptic Command
3 Ponder

4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Mutavault
3 Mystic Gate
12 Island

Sideboard

This is where it gets a bit dicey.

Two easy ports from Standard are Burrenton Forge-Tender and Reveillark. Forge-Tender offers protection from 5cControl's devastating Firespouts, and Reveillark is incredibly strong versus decks that quickly become wars of attrition.

3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
3 Reveillark

Sideboarding necessarily calls into question what matchups need assistance. Merfolk's biggest problem is Kithkin, as they pump out a greater number of creatures -- often with better stats -- and have more lords than we do now. Luckily the current Kithkin decks run a number of high-cost spells like Cloudgoat Ranger and Thistledown Liege, which are quite possible to counter, but problems like Spectral Procession and even the new Figure of Destiny need to be addressed.

The solution versus Kithkin is, of course, mass removal. However, the two colors of Merfolk don't have access to a great deal of mass removal, so other solutions need to be looked at.

Options include:

Hallowed Burial
Inundate
Pollen Lullaby
Ajani Goldmane
Brigid, Hero of Kinsbaile
Cloudgoat Ranger
Plumeveil

Of these, Pollen Lullaby and Plumeveil seem to be the most diverse and effective. Inundate is really interesting to me, as if you can stall out a few turns it acts as more copies of Cryptic Command's most important mode in the matchup, and more effective at that. Ajani is also a pretty diverse card but seems bad when you are assuming you'll be on the back-foot and out-creatured in a matchup. Hallowed Burial is a true Wrath that is reasonably costed, but doesn't mesh well at all with the rest of the deck. Still, it could be part of a pseudo-control transformational sideboard with Broken Ambitions and Oona that might be effective versus Kithkin. Cloudgoat Ranger and Brigid are the Kithkin decks' own answers to their mirror, but are somewhat hard with our manabase and are not used to maximum effect here.

For now, we'll go with the conventional options and see how it works.

3 Plumeveil
3 Pollen Lullaby

Finally, an answer to the juggernaut of the format, Bitterblossom and a strong card against Faeries otherwise.

3 Wispmare

I'd like to fit in the last Sower somewhere, so I'll cut one of what I feel is the weakest card of the bunch, and one that is somewhat redundant.

-1 Pollen Lullaby
+1 Sower of Temptation

So, here's the final list:

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Stonybrook Banneret
4 Merrow Reejery
4 Wake Thrasher
3 Sower of Temptation
2 Sygg, River Guide

4 Sage's Dousing
4 Cryptic Command
3 Ponder

4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Mutavault
3 Mystic Gate
12 Island

SB:
3 Burrenton Forge-Tender
3 Reveillark
3 Plumeveil
3 Wispmare
2 Pollen Lullaby
1 Sower of Temptation

While this is not a radical departure from the Standard list nor the Block lists, I want to get some more experience with this version of the deck -- I've played with the pre-SHM version on MTGO a great deal, but not much recently -- before I make any big changes.

Standard is this afternoon and Block is next week, so I'll definitely be back with thoughts and changes on these builds.

~Andres

PS --

Rough sketch for a more aggro version of this deck:

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Stonybrook Banneret
4 Grimoire Thief
4 Merrow Reejery
4 Wake Thrasher
3 Sygg, River Guide


4 Sage's Dousing
4 Cryptic Command
2 Mirrorweave

4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Mutavault
3 Mystic Gate
11 Island